Introduction
Our website expounds upon the most prevalent betting systems utilized in various online casino games. Nonetheless, we have committed to our clients that we will devise exclusive betting systems which remain distinct from those employed by other players and for which online casino risk management is unprepared. Our objective is to furnish our clients with an algorithm for formulating their singular betting systems – the WinWave betting systems – or an algorithm for refining pre-existing betting systems. We coin the term “WinWave” to facilitate navigation on our website and to differentiate between a widely adopted betting system, such as the Martingale betting system, and the enhanced system we will refer to as the WinWave Martingale betting system. This article marks the inception of a sequence of articles concerning betting systems that will remain exclusive to our platform, barring any reposting of our content by external parties.
Online Casinos – Research
To initiate our investigation into online casinos, we propose the execution of a straightforward experiment. My partner and I will register at Spin Casino from disparate locations, employing distinct IP addresses, and attempt to partake in a roulette game hosted by the same live dealer. This experiment aims to ascertain whether we observe identical information and determine the nature of the information that can be harnessed for the subsequent development of efficacious betting systems tailored for online casinos.
Pic.1 – Spin Casino login from location 1
Pic.2 – Spin Casino login from location 2
We observe that two players who have selected the same game encounter identical information, specifically: chat, prior winning numbers, players who have won, and the respective winnings of each player. In the future, we can utilize this data to construct our proprietary #WinWave betting systems and enhance existing ones.
Risk Management in Offline Casinos and Online Casinos
To devise unique WinWave betting systems or significantly augment existing ones, it is essential to comprehend the operations of the risk management team in offline casinos and the functioning of risk management programs in online casinos.
To grasp the concept of risk management, let us perform some elementary calculations.
In European roulette, the wheel comprises 37 cells: 18 black, 18 red, and 1 green. The probability of black appearing on the first spin of the wheel is 18/37. As the occurrence of each color on the wheel spin is independent of the others, the probability of black appearing twice consecutively is the product of the probabilities of black appearing on each spin: (18/37) * (18/37) ≈ 0.486 * 0.486 ≈ 0.236, and so forth.
If you play American roulette (with two green cells), the wheel consists of 38 cells: 18 black, 18 red, and 2 green. The probability of black appearing on the first spin of the wheel is 18/38. Since the occurrence of each color on the wheel spin is independent of the others, the probability of black appearing twice in a row is the product of the probabilities of black appearing on each spin: (18/38) * (18/38) ≈ 0.224 * 0.224 ≈ 0.0503, and so on.
Typically, the ratio of the minimum and maximum bid in offline casinos is 1,000. That is, if the minimum bid is 5 dollars, then the maximum will be equal to $5 * 1,000 = $5,000.
The ratio of the minimum and maximum bid in online casinos is usually 2,000, i.e., if the minimum bid is 20 cents, then the maximum bid is 0.02 * 2,000 = $4,000.
Let’s calculate the probability of losing in an offline casino using the Martingale strategy, as discussed in our article on the Martingale Betting System. Assume you have set the minimum amount you can lose at $5,000, and your first bet is on black, but red keeps appearing.
| Bet # | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | – | 9 | 10 | 11 | – | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offline Casino Bet, $ | 5 | 10 | 20 | 40 | 80 | – | 1,280 | 2,256 | 5,120 | – | |
| Offline Casino Loss, $ | 5 | 15 | 30 | 60 | 120 | – | 1,920 | 3,840 | – | ||
| Online Casino Bet, $ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 3.2 | – | – | ||||
| Online Casino Loss, $ | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 6.2 | – | – | 3,276 | |||
| Probability of Loss (European Casinos) | 0.486 | – | 0.0000279 (0.00279%) | – | 0.00000683 (0.000683%) | ||||||
| Probability of Loss (American Casinos) | 0.474 | – | 0.0000116 (0.00116%) | – | 0.00000171 (0.000171%) |
I’d like to remind you that in an offline casino, we cannot place an 11th bet to recover our losses due to the maximum bet limit, which is 1,000 times the minimum bet. However, in an online casino, we have the chance to make four additional bets since the ratio of the maximum bet to the minimum is 2,000. Consider the probabilities for the 11th bet at the maximum limit in an offline casino and the 14th bet at the maximum limit in an online casino. Does anything concern you?
For comparison and to understand the improbability of 10 consecutive outcomes of black or red, even or odd, 1-18 or 19-36, let’s calculate the probability of an extraordinary event: winning a 6 out of 36 lotteries.
To determine the probability of guessing six numbers out of 36, we will use the combination formula: C(n, k) = n! / (k! * (n – k)!) where “n” represents the number of elements in the set (in this case, 36 numbers), “k” is the number of elements we choose (in this case, six numbers), and “!” denotes the factorial.
Thus, the total number of possible combinations of 36 numbers, choosing six, is: C(36, 6) = 36! / (6! * (36 – 6)!) = 1,947,792. Assuming all combinations are equally probable, the probability of guessing all six numbers is: 1 / 1,947,792 ≈ 0.000000513. As a result, the probability of guessing six numbers out of 36 is approximately 0.0000513, or 0.00513%.
Do you know many people who win a 6 out of 36 lottery? So, does this mean it is impossible to lose using the Martingale system? Unfortunately, that is not the case. Let’s explore why.
Understanding Casino Risk Management
Consider this riddle: “If you bet $4,000 on black, will the outcome be red or black?” Before answering that it will be red, remember that a risk management system is at play. In offline casinos, this system includes not only an experienced croupier but also a specialized team, a surveillance camera system, and risk management software. For online casinos, it is the software that assists in managing risks. To answer the riddle, one must consider the bets of other players. The casino will select the color, even or odd, zero, or double zero, based on all players’ bets to maximize profit.
For example, if you and other players bet $20,000 on black and $4,000 on red, the result will either be red or zero, assuming no one bet on zero or if the casino’s loss from a zero bet is less than the loss from the outcome of white or red, even or odd, 1-18, or 19-36. If you have visited a Las Vegas casino and played roulette or frequently play at a real online casino, you may have observed moments when zero appears quite often.
However, you might not have thought to assess other players’ bets, as you analyzed the outcome of a specific number, black or red, even or odd, 1-18, or 19-36, or zero from a probability theory standpoint.
Now, we will examine popular betting systems from both the probability theory perspective and with an understanding of how risk management operates in online casinos. This knowledge will enable us to enhance existing popular betting systems and create our own WinWave betting systems. In the next article, we will apply the insights gained to improve the Martingale betting system for playing roulette.
Martingale betting system: Advise #1
As a preview of my upcoming advice on enhancing the Martingale strategy, consider this: If we initiate the Martingale series after three or four consecutives, even or odd, 1-18, or 19-36 outcomes, we will drastically reduce the likelihood of losing and shorten the series. This is not because roulette strictly follows probability theory, but because, according to probability theory, there will be a roulette player or several players whose total bet surpasses our total bet. The potential winnings from a zero outcome will also exceed the casino’s loss from our bet.
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